8February2025,00:02
DragonTariffs:HowChina'sDutiesonUSLNGWillChangeGlobalFlows

China 중국 무역 considers its steps fair and justified

글쓴 분 : (이철 박사님)
미국과 중국 사이에 새로운 무역 전쟁이 곧 발발할 예정입니다. 양국은 이미 서로의 수입품에 대해 관세를 부과했습니다. 중국은 미국의 관세 부과에 대해 에너지 제품에 관세를 부과하는 방식으로 보복했으며, 이는 LNG, 석유, 석탄에 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 해외 분석가들은 전 세계 무역 흐름이 변화할 것으로 예상되는 중국 무역 심각한 결과를 예측하고 있습니다.석유에는 10%의 관세가 부과되고 석탄과 LNG에는 15%의 관세가 부과됩니다. 중국의 대응은 미국 자동차 산업에도 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 다리터 자동차, 픽업 트럭 및 농기계에는 10%의 관세가 부과됩니다. 그러나 새로운 관세는 미국에게 그다지 중요하지 않습니다. 2024 년 말 중국과 미국 간의 무역 매출액은 총 6,882 억 8,800 만 달러 였지만 미국으로부터의 중국 무역 공급은 1,636 억 2,000 만 달러에 불과했습니다. 미국에서 중국으로의 석유 공급은 전년도에 절반 이상 감소하여 1,080 만 톤에 불과했습니다. 이 중 금액 기준으로 에너지 수입 비중은 석유 60 억 달러, LNG 24 억 달러, 석탄 코크스 18 억 달러로 미미했습니다. 사실 중국 수입업자들은 이미 미국에서 수입한 물량의 대부분을 다른 시장에 판매하고 있습니다. 중국 무역 특히 추운 날씨와 가스 저장 시설의 급격한 매장량 감소로 LNG가 절실히 필요한 북서 유럽으로의 해상 물동량이 증가했습니다. 중국은 국내 생산을 늘리고 인프라 및 가스 처리 기술을 개선하고 있습니다. 러시아로부터의 공급은 파이프 라인, 철도 및 도로 운송뿐만 아니라 터미널 네트워크를 통해 계속 증가 할 것입니다. 그러나 에너지 공급의 다변화는 중국에게 매우 중요하며 러시아가 중국 무역 중국 시장을 지배하는 것을 허용하지 않을 것임을 이해해야합니다.

AnewtradewarisabouttobreakoutbetweentheUSandChina.Thecountrieshavealreadyimposedtariffsoneachother'simports.BeijinghasimposedtariffsonenergyresourcesinresponsetotheUStariffs,whichwillaffectLNG,oilandcoal.Foreignanalystspredictseriousconsequences,andachangeintradeflowsis
expectedaroundtheworld.ExpertsinterviewedbyIzvestiabelievethatChinahasrespondedrathermildly,
thetariffswillnothaveaseriousimpactontheUS,andenergypriceswilldependmoreonfactorsunrelated
tothetradewar.Istheworldfacingaglobalredistributionofmarketsduetotheescalationofrelations
betweenChinaandtheUS?Izvestiareports. Anaturalreaction
USPresidentDonaldTrump,whohadthreatenedmanycountrieswithtoughtariffs,hastakenaction.He
signedexecutiveorderstoimposetariffsongoodsfromCanada,MexicoandChina.Inthefirsttwocases,
negotiationshelpedsoftentheAmericanleader'sdecision,butChina,whichwashitwith10%tariffs(in
additiontothosealreadyineffectonChineseimports),hastakendecisiveaction.Therearegrowing
concernsthattheworldisonthebrinkofanothertradewar.ExpertspredictthatChina'sactionswillhave
seriousconsequences. ThefirstthingChinadidtoprotectitsinterestswastoimposedutiesonimportsofAmericanenergy
resources.ThedecisionoftheStateCouncilofthePeople'sRepublicofChinawillcomeintoforceon
February 10. Oil will be subject to a duty of 10%, and tariffs on coal and LNG will be 15%. China's response will also affect the American auto industry --large cars, pickups and agricultural machinery will be subject to a duty of 10%.

Inaddition,ChinafiledacomplaintagainsttheUStaxmeasureswiththeWorldTradeOrganization(WTO),as
announcedbytheChineseMinistryofCommerce.ThedepartmentconsideredWashington'sunilateralintroductionof
duties"atypicalmanifestationofunilateralism(actionsthatdonottakeintoaccounttheinterestsofothercountries.-Ed.)andtradeprotectionism." 중국 무역 Chinaconsidersthestepstakenonitsparttobecompletelyfairandjustified.ThisstatementwasmadebytheChinese
EmbassyinWashington.Thediplomaticdepartmentemphasizedthatthemeasurescomplywithcurrentlaws,
regulationsandthebasicprinciplesofinternationallaw. Thenewtariffs,however,arenotsocriticalfortheUnitedStates.Accordingtotheresultsof2024,thetradeturnover
betweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesofAmericaamountedto$688.28billion,butsuppliesfromtheUnitedStates
accountedforonly$163.62billion.Ofthese,theshareofenergyimportsinmonetarytermsamountedtoamodest$6
billionforoil,$2.4billionforLNG,and$1.8billionforcoalcoke.
Alarmsignal
However,China’smovetoimposetariffsonimportedliquefiednaturalgasisalreadyraisingconcernsamongexperts.It
couldsparkabattlefortheworld’slargestbuyerofthefuel.SuchamovecouldencourageChinesecustomerswith
long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers to resell their supplies to importers elsewhere at a higher price, sending LNG prices soaring everywhere.

It is unlikely that Chinese firms will sign new long-term contracts with American suppliers, a situation that will continue as long as trade tensions remain high. The tariff hikes have already 중국 무역 had an impact on Europe's LNG-dependent energy market. EU natural gas prices have fallen sharply over five sessions. Benchmark futures have fallen 2.1%. ThefactisthatChineseimportersarealreadysellingmostofthevolumestheyreceivefromtheUStoothermarkets.Inparticular,seaflowstoNorthwestEurope,whichisindireneedofLNGduetocoldweatherandrapidlydepleting
reservesingasstoragefacilities,haveincreased.Atthattime,fuelpricesrosesignificantly,butthepossibilityof
increasingsuppliesledtoadropinprices. Incidentally,thetariffsalsoaffectedoil.TheprospectofatradewarbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,undermining
thegrowthofprices,threatenedthedemandforenergyresources.Asaresult,thepriceofWestTexasIntermediatefell
to$71perbarrel.Futuresfellbelowtheleveloftheendof2024forthefirsttimethisyear.

In2024,theUnitedStatessuppliedChinawithanaverageofabout250,000barrelsofcrudeoilperday.That'sa
relativelysmallamount,butanescalationintradetensionsbetweenthetwolargesteconomiescouldhavefarbroader
implications,hurtingglobalconsumption.
Asymmetricalresponse
DonaldTrump'sdecisiontoprotectAmericanmarketsfromgoodsfromChinaandothercountriescouldnotgo
unanswered,associateprofessorattheStateUniversityofManagementGalinaRyazanovaissure.However,compared
tothevolumeoftotaldutiesinmonetarytermsimposedonChina,thebacklashlooksrathermodest. Atthemoment,itisunknownhowlongthesedutieswillbeintroduced,notesMaximKuznetsov,ChairmanoftheRussian-AsianBusinessCouncil.

“Butiftheyremainineffectforalongtime,wewillseearedirectionofcommodityflowsandageneraldecreasein
efficiency in the market , as was the case with the oil segment after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, when Russia and the Middle Eastern countries essentially 중국 무역 swapped markets: China and India in exchange for the EU,&rdquothe expert warns. ChinahascurrentlyimposeddutiesonthemainitemsofAmericanexport,Kuznetsovclarifies.Atthesametime,Beijinghasnotaffectedothertypesofsupplies. “TheUSisactivelysupplyingChinawithaircraft,ITequipment,industrialequipmentandothertechnologicalproduct
groups,ontheimportofwhichChinaisseriouslydependentandforwhichdutieshavenotbeenimposed,”Izvestia’s
sourcelists. China'sresponsedecisionsarenotsymmetrical,whichindicatesthereluctanceoftheChineseleadershiptoescalatethetradewar,Ryazanovaisconvinced. “Chinahasintroducedtariffsinatargetedmanner,anditisobviousthatthisisnotablowtotheUSeconomy,butto
supportforPresidentDonaldTrump,”saysindependentresourceandenergymarketexpertVladimirDemidov.

ItistheoilandgasworkerswhoarethekeygroupthatsupportstheAmericanleader,herecalls.Thiscould
beafairlyeffectiveresponsetoUStariffs,althoughdisproportionate. Itisobviousthatthetariffswerenotintroducedtoincitewar,buttoconvinceTrumptositdownatthe
negotiatingtable,Demidovbelieves.Withitsactions,ChinaprimarilywantstoshowthatitcanusethesameweaponsastheAmericans. Acombinationoffactors
InthecaseofLNGprices,theremaybefluctuationsintheshorttermduetonews,butinthemediumterm,the
introductionofdutieswillnothaveasignificantimpactonthemarket,MaximKuznetsovisconvinced. —AmoreimportantfactorfortheenergymarketwillbetheimpactofthenewtradewaroneconomicgrowthintheUS
andChina,thederivativeofwhichisthedynamicsofglobaldemandforenergyresources.Ifthetradewarleadstoa
slowdownintheChineseeconomy,andestimatesarealreadybeingpublishedaboutadecreaseinthegrowthofChina'sGDPby0.5%,wewillseeadecreaseinthecostofenergyresources,—theIzvestiainterlocutorpredicts.

GalinaRyazanovaagreesthattariffswillnothaveasignificantimpactonpricesintheenergymarket. “Theimpositionofdutieson10.8milliontonsofoiloutofthe4.5billiontonsconsumedintheworldandon4.2million
tonsofgasoutoftheworldconsumptionofabout3.4billionintermsoftonsdoesnotposeathreattoglobalpricingin
thesemarkets,”theexpertisconfident. Accordingtoher,thecostismuchmoreinfluencedbygeopoliticalandtechnologicalfactors,exchangeratesandthe
situationonfinancialmarkets,aswellaschangesintheflowofgoodsandlogisticschains.
Marketredistribution
China'srefusaltorelyonAmericanenergysourcesisquitereal.Chinaisfamousforitsstrategyofresourcediversification,emphasizesMaximKuznetsov.LNGimportsfromtheUnitedStatescertainlygrewlastyear,amountingto4.16milliontons,butAustraliaremainedtheleader,meetingChina'sneedsby35%(23.5
milliontons),clarifiesGalinaRyazanova.Russiacameinsecondplacewithatotalvolumeof21.7million
tons.Qatar(16.2milliontons)andMalaysia(6.5milliontons)werealsoamongtheleaders.

—InresponsetothegrowingdemandforLNGandthedesiretoreducedependenceonitsimports,China
isincreasingdomesticproduction,improvinginfrastructureandgasprocessingtechnologies.SuppliesfromRussiawillcontinuetogrowbothviapipelines,railandroadtransport,andthroughanetworkofterminals,—theexpertisconvinced. CokingcoalsuppliedbytheAmericansmetChina'sneedsin2024by9%,andthermalcoalby0.8%,
Ryazanovanotes.ThesevolumescanbereplacedbyadditionalsuppliesthatIndonesia,Russia,and
Australia,aswellasMongolia,SouthAfrica,andVietnam,arecapableofmaking. AndoilsuppliesfromtheUStoChinafellbymorethanhalfinthepreviousyear,amountingtoonly10.8
milliontons,Izvestia'ssourcecitesdata.Forcomparison:Chinaimported10timesmorefromRussiain
2024 - 108.5 million tons of oil. It follows from this that oil import flows in China have already been reoriented to Russian products, which will continue to increase in 중국 무역 the future. ForRussia,whichissufferingfromtighteningsanctionsonoilandLNG,thetradewarbetweentheUSandChinacouldcomeinhandy,becomingafactorinincreasingdemandforRussianenergyresources,
Kuznetsovbelieves.

“However,itisworthunderstandingthatdiversificationofenergysuppliesisextremelyimportantforChina,
anditisunlikelytoallowRussiatotakeadominantpositioninitsmarket,”theexpertbelieves. ToreplaceAmericanoil,China,inhisopinion,couldincreasesuppliesfromIranviaMalaysia,aswellas
fromtheMiddleEastandAfrica. ThetradewaritselfbetweentheUSandChinawillsoonerorlaterendthroughthesigningofanagreement,similartowhathappenedin2020,VladimirDemidovsumsup.